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Cycle Short '24: Stretched Consumer
14 tickers · $267.98B total market cap
Group: Cycle Short
The Cycle '24 Shorts: Stretched Consumer thesis is bearish, positing that consumer discretionary and financially leveraged companies will face significant headwinds as economic growth slows and consumer spending contracts. With rising interest rates and inflationary pressures, the purchasing power of consumers is expected to diminish, impacting sales and profit margins negatively. Companies with heavy reliance on consumer spending, such as retailers and financial service providers, are particularly vulnerable in this environment.
Cycle Short '24: Stretched Consumer tracks 14 publicly listed stocks in this theme. Sample tickers: BG, CHH, CROX, EWCZ, IBKR, LPLA, M, NRG, SIG, TRUP, TTD, UPBD, and 2 more. Use the table below for the full list.
Thesis update: 2025-04-01
Constituents
Build 20260520T081747
| Company | Previous Quarter Report Date | Next Expected Report Date | Last Quarter Earnings Move % | Earnings Move % | Intra-Quarter Move % | Since Last Report % | Market cap | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.IBKR | 04/21/2026 (AMC) | 04/21/2026 (AMC) | 7.97% | -3.86% | 3.12% | 6.84% | $143.52B | 7.1429 |
NRG Energy, Inc.NRG | 05/06/2026 (BMO) | 05/06/2026 (BMO) | 4.01% | -9.89% | -14.25% | -12.79% | $26.10B | 7.1429 |
Bunge Global S.A.BG | 04/29/2026 (BMO) | 04/29/2026 (BMO) | -2.52% | 0.56% | 10.90% | -3.79% | $23.72B | 7.1429 |
LPL Financial Holdings Inc.LPLA | 04/30/2026 (AMC) | 04/30/2026 (AMC) | 0.49% | -3.71% | -8.33% | -9.81% | $22.98B | 7.1429 |
Williams-Sonoma, Inc.WSM | 03/18/2026 (AMC) | 05/28/2026 (AMC) | -3.09% | — | -5.93% | — | $20.44B | 7.1429 |
The Trade Desk, Inc.TTD | 05/07/2026 (AMC) | 05/07/2026 (AMC) | -5.33% | -3.87% | -1.39% | -8.32% | $9.95B | 7.1429 |
Macy's, Inc.M | 03/18/2026 (BMO) | 05/27/2026 (BMO) | 6.68% | — | 5.54% | — | $5.02B | 7.1429 |
Crocs, Inc.CROX | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | 17.10% | 3.73% | 3.37% | -4.59% | $4.92B | 7.1429 |
Choice Hotels International, Inc.CHH | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | 0.73% | -14.20% | 6.50% | 5.42% | $4.83B | 7.1429 |
Signet Jewelers LimitedSIG | 03/19/2026 (BMO) | 06/02/2026 (BMO) | 13.05% | — | -16.75% | — | $3.02B | 7.1429 |
XPEL, Inc.XPEL | 05/06/2026 (BMO) | 05/06/2026 (BMO) | -10.72% | -10.96% | 9.57% | -1.62% | $1.19B | 7.1429 |
Upbound Group, Inc.UPBD | 04/30/2026 (AMC) | 04/30/2026 (AMC) | 2.61% | 1.32% | -13.26% | -11.05% | $995.1M | 7.1429 |
Trupanion, Inc.TRUP | 04/30/2026 (AMC) | 04/30/2026 (AMC) | -13.01% | -2.99% | -14.20% | -9.25% | $963.1M | 7.1429 |
European Wax Center, Inc.EWCZ | 05/13/2026 (AMC) | 05/13/2026 (AMC) | 0.17% | 0.00% | 1.39% | 0.00% | $319.1M | 7.1429 |
| Average | 1.30% | -3.99% | -2.41% | -4.45% | $19.14B | 7.1429 | ||
| Median | 0.61% | -3.71% | 0.00% | -4.59% | $4.97B | 7.1429 | ||
| Std Dev | 8.01% | 5.34% | 9.23% | 6.27% | $35.70B | 0.0% | ||
| Min | -13.01% | -14.20% | -16.75% | -12.79% | $319.1M | 7.1429 | ||
| Max | 17.10% | 3.73% | 10.90% | 6.84% | $143.52B | 7.1429 | ||
| % Positive Tickers | 64.29% | 27.27% | 50.00% | 18.18% |
* Provisional value: before LstRpt% reaches its 2-day post-report lock window (BMO/AMC adjusted), EarningsPerf is calculated from current vs pre-report and then locks to final LstRpt%.