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Cycle Short '24: Vacation/Recreation
16 tickers · $127.05B total market cap
Group: Cycle Short
The Cycle '24 Shorts: Vacation/Recreation thesis is bearish, anticipating a downturn in the leisure and recreation sectors as discretionary spending tightens amidst economic slowdown concerns in Spring 2025. The basket includes companies like Carnival Corporation (CCL) and Polaris Inc. (PII), which are particularly vulnerable due to high operational leverage and reliance on consumer spending. The expectation is that consumers will prioritize essential spending, leading to decreased demand for leisure activities.
Cycle Short '24: Vacation/Recreation tracks 16 publicly listed stocks in this theme. Sample tickers: BC, BEN.PA, CCL, COOK, DOO, FOXF, HGV, HOG, MBUU, MPX, PII, RCL, and 4 more. Use the table below for the full list.
Thesis update: 2025-04-01
Constituents
Build 20260520T081747
| Company | Previous Quarter Report Date | Next Expected Report Date | Last Quarter Earnings Move % | Earnings Move % | Intra-Quarter Move % | Since Last Report % | Market cap | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd.RCL | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | 11.33% | 4.54% | -21.76% | -6.91% | $66.30B | 6.2500 |
Carnival Corporation & plcCCL | 03/27/2026 (BMO) | — | -4.31% | — | -1.24% | — | $33.09B | 6.2500 |
Brunswick CorporationBC | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | -0.50% | 0.09% | -0.47% | -7.47% | $4.77B | 6.2500 |
BRP Inc.DOO | 12/04/2025 | 05/28/2026 | 1.82% | — | -29.18% | — | $3.99B | 6.2500 |
Travel + Leisure Co.TNL | 04/22/2026 | 04/22/2026 | 1.05% | -14.46% | -12.91% | -3.76% | $3.91B | 6.2500 |
Hilton Grand Vacations Inc.HGV | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | -7.49% | 5.85% | -3.47% | 0.26% | $3.67B | 6.2500 |
Polaris Inc.PII | 04/27/2026 (BMO) | 04/27/2026 (BMO) | -6.03% | 10.71% | -7.55% | -9.51% | $3.42B | 6.2500 |
Harley-Davidson, Inc.HOG | 05/05/2026 (BMO) | 05/05/2026 (BMO) | 2.18% | 2.71% | 12.78% | -2.01% | $2.46B | 6.2500 |
Marriott Vacations Worldwide CorporationVAC | 05/05/2026 (AMC) | 05/05/2026 (AMC) | 10.77% | 11.47% | 14.75% | -10.22% | $2.41B | 6.2500 |
Winnebago Industries, Inc.WGO | 03/25/2026 (BMO) | — | -6.36% | — | -14.16% | — | $797.1M | 6.2500 |
Fox Factory Holding Corp.FOXF | 05/07/2026 | 05/07/2026 | -8.28% | -2.09% | 10.27% | -9.78% | $673.5M | 6.2500 |
Bénéteau S.A.BEN.PA | 03/18/2026 (AMC) | — | 0.43% | — | 6.51% | — | $636.9M | 6.2500 |
Malibu Boats, Inc.MBUU | 05/07/2026 | 05/07/2026 | 1.73% | 17.08% | -18.69% | -17.38% | $462.5M | 6.2500 |
Marine Products CorporationMPX | 05/07/2026 | 05/07/2026 | -0.36% | 9.70% | 3.00% | -6.62% | $280.0M | 6.2500 |
Traeger, Inc.COOK | 05/11/2026 | 05/11/2026 | -20.26% | -5.68% | 34.66% | 31.83% | $149.6M | 6.2500 |
Solo Brands, Inc.SBDS | 05/14/2026 | 05/14/2026 | -5.16% | -9.27% | 21.29% | 2.44% | $11.8M | 6.2500 |
| Average | -1.84% | 2.55% | -0.39% | -3.26% | $7.94B | 6.2500 | ||
| Median | -0.43% | 3.63% | -0.85% | -6.77% | $2.44B | 6.2500 | ||
| Std Dev | 7.33% | 8.89% | 16.40% | 11.73% | $16.91B | 0.0% | ||
| Min | -20.26% | -14.46% | -29.18% | -17.38% | $11.8M | 6.2500 | ||
| Max | 11.33% | 17.08% | 34.66% | 31.83% | $66.30B | 6.2500 | ||
| % Positive Tickers | 43.75% | 66.67% | 43.75% | 25.00% |
* Provisional value: before LstRpt% reaches its 2-day post-report lock window (BMO/AMC adjusted), EarningsPerf is calculated from current vs pre-report and then locks to final LstRpt%.