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Cycle Short '25: Overbuilt Housing in SE
11 tickers · $91.25B total market cap
Group: Cycle Short
Housing inventory is the most reliable leading indicator of home prices, and elevated inventory levels —especially in the SE —suggest that home prices, particularly entry-level new homes, are poised to decline. These homebuilders and suppliers are uniquely vulnerable as they are forced sellers and their margins are highly sensitive to price declines due to lagging cost inputs like land.
Cycle Short '25: Overbuilt Housing in SE tracks 11 publicly listed stocks in this theme: BLDR, DFH, DHI, GRBK, LEN, LGIH, MTH, NOBH, SDHC, UHG, WSO. See the constituent table for details.
Thesis update: 2025-04-01
Constituents
Build 20260520T081747
| Company | Previous Quarter Report Date | Next Expected Report Date | Last Quarter Earnings Move % | Earnings Move % | Intra-Quarter Move % | Since Last Report % | Market cap | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
D.R. Horton, Inc.DHI | 04/21/2026 (BMO) | 04/21/2026 (BMO) | 1.38% | 5.11% | -3.02% | -16.42% | $38.20B | 10.0000 |
Lennar CorporationLEN | 03/12/2026 (BMO) | — | -1.67% | — | -12.59% | — | $21.01B | 10.0000 |
Watsco, Inc.WSO | 04/28/2026 (BMO) | 04/28/2026 (BMO) | 0.34% | -6.21% | 8.95% | -9.73% | $15.73B | 10.0000 |
Builders FirstSource, Inc.BLDR | 04/30/2026 (AMC) | 04/30/2026 (AMC) | -2.80% | -9.19% | -29.02% | -12.32% | $7.14B | 10.0000 |
Meritage Homes CorporationMTH | 04/22/2026 (AMC) | 04/22/2026 (AMC) | 0.48% | 0.59% | -1.15% | -12.92% | $4.07B | 10.0000 |
Green Brick Partners, Inc.GRBK | 04/29/2026 (AMC) | 04/29/2026 (AMC) | -1.02% | -4.04% | -8.58% | -5.86% | $2.74B | 10.0000 |
Dream Finders Homes, Inc.DFH | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | -6.30% | 7.84% | -26.30% | -17.63% | $1.17B | 10.0000 |
LGI Homes, Inc.LGIH | 04/28/2026 | 04/28/2026 | -8.13% | 5.76% | -8.35% | -15.36% | $942.5M | 10.0000 |
Smith Douglas Homes Corp.SDHC | 04/29/2026 | 04/29/2026 | 6.23% | 3.05% | 5.63% | -23.55% | $90.5M | 10.0000 |
Nobility Homes, Inc.NOBH | 01/06/2026 | — | 4.55% | — | 2.64% | — | $88.3M | 0.0% |
United Homes Group, Inc.UHG | 03/12/2026 | — | -0.85% | — | 5.17% | — | $71.8M | 10.0000 |
| Average | -0.71% | 0.37% | -6.06% | -14.22% | $8.30B | 9.0909 | ||
| Median | -0.85% | 1.82% | -3.02% | -14.14% | $2.74B | 10.0000 | ||
| Std Dev | 3.98% | 5.80% | 12.02% | 5.00% | $11.56B | 2.8748 | ||
| Min | -8.13% | -9.19% | -29.02% | -23.55% | $71.8M | 0.0% | ||
| Max | 6.23% | 7.84% | 8.95% | -5.86% | $38.20B | 10.0000 | ||
| % Positive Tickers | 45.45% | 62.50% | 36.36% | 0.00% |
* Provisional value: before LstRpt% reaches its 2-day post-report lock window (BMO/AMC adjusted), EarningsPerf is calculated from current vs pre-report and then locks to final LstRpt%.