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HaveNots Shorts '25: Premium Finance
18 tickers · $1.67T total market cap
Group: HaveNots Shorts
This short basket targets wealth-sensitive, market-correlated financial firms—particularly those exposed to affluent clients, asset management fees, and premium credit or brokerage products. Some are vulnerable to declining asset prices, slower flows, and white-collar pressure, while alternative asset managers (KKR, OWL, HLNE) and fintech lenders (UPST, ALLY) face cyclical headwinds from credit quality, spreads, and client retrenchment. As the wealth effect rolls off, flows and fee-based earnings at the top of the financial pyramid are at risk.
HaveNots Shorts '25: Premium Finance tracks 18 publicly listed stocks in this theme. Sample tickers: ALLY, AXP, BLK, BX, CFG, FCNCA, GS, HLNE, IBKR, IVZ, KKR, LPLA, and 6 more. Use the table below for the full list.
Thesis update: 2025-04-07
Constituents
Build 20260519T212339
| Company | Previous Quarter Report Date | Next Expected Report Date | Last Quarter Earnings Move % | Earnings Move % | Intra-Quarter Move % | Since Last Report % | Market cap | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Morgan StanleyMS | 04/15/2026 (BMO) | 04/15/2026 (BMO) | 4.60% | 2.17% | -3.04% | 1.21% | $303.93B | 5.5556 |
The Goldman Sachs Group, Inc.GS | 04/13/2026 (BMO) | 04/13/2026 (BMO) | 3.14% | 0.20% | -5.63% | 2.10% | $280.84B | 5.5556 |
American Express CompanyAXP | 04/23/2026 (BMO) | 04/23/2026 (BMO) | -1.77% | -5.65% | -5.47% | -1.52% | $213.05B | 5.5556 |
BlackRock, Inc.BLK | 04/14/2026 (BMO) | 04/14/2026 (BMO) | 6.53% | 2.44% | -11.99% | -1.17% | $168.57B | 5.5556 |
Interactive Brokers Group, Inc.IBKR | 04/21/2026 (AMC) | 04/21/2026 (AMC) | 7.97% | -3.86% | 3.12% | 6.84% | $148.12B | 5.5556 |
UBS Group AGUBS | 04/29/2026 (BMO) | 04/29/2026 (BMO) | -8.18% | 4.28% | -3.82% | 3.78% | $143.66B | 5.5556 |
Blackstone Inc.BX | 04/23/2026 (BMO) | 04/23/2026 (BMO) | -2.98% | -6.23% | -8.91% | -6.07% | $140.60B | 5.5556 |
KKR & Co. Inc.KKR | 05/05/2026 (BMO) | 05/05/2026 (BMO) | -1.50% | -2.46% | 0.13% | -7.81% | $86.17B | 5.5556 |
Northern Trust CorporationNTRS | 04/21/2026 (BMO) | 04/21/2026 (BMO) | 2.92% | 5.56% | 6.97% | -1.74% | $30.58B | 5.5556 |
Raymond James Financial, Inc.RJF | 04/22/2026 (AMC) | 04/22/2026 (AMC) | -1.46% | -0.73% | -6.84% | -1.56% | $30.10B | 5.5556 |
Citizens Financial Group, Inc.CFG | 04/16/2026 (BMO) | 04/16/2026 (BMO) | 7.42% | -1.14% | 1.46% | -4.84% | $25.86B | 5.5556 |
LPL Financial Holdings Inc.LPLA | 04/30/2026 (AMC) | 04/30/2026 (AMC) | 0.49% | -3.71% | -8.33% | -9.81% | $23.64B | 5.5556 |
First Citizens BancShares, Inc.FCNCA | 04/23/2026 (BMO) | 04/23/2026 (BMO) | -8.48% | -5.57% | 1.45% | -0.27% | $22.51B | 5.5556 |
Blue Owl Capital Inc.OWL | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | 04/30/2026 (BMO) | 3.81% | 12.39% | -29.07% | -5.51% | $14.83B | 5.5556 |
Ally Financial Inc.ALLY | 04/17/2026 (BMO) | 04/17/2026 (BMO) | -1.01% | 8.10% | -0.07% | -9.94% | $12.91B | 5.5556 |
Invesco Ltd.IVZ | 04/28/2026 (BMO) | 04/28/2026 (BMO) | -3.74% | 0.63% | -7.55% | 3.26% | $12.14B | 5.5556 |
Hamilton Lane IncorporatedHLNE | 02/03/2026 (BMO) | 05/21/2026 (BMO) | -0.25% | — | -40.36% | — | $4.84B | 5.5556 |
Upstart Holdings, Inc.UPST | 05/05/2026 (AMC) | 05/05/2026 (AMC) | -22.51% | -10.54% | 3.25% | -2.16% | $2.67B | 5.5556 |
| Average | -0.83% | -0.24% | -6.37% | -2.07% | $92.50B | 5.5556 | ||
| Median | -0.63% | -0.73% | -4.64% | -1.56% | $30.34B | 5.5556 | ||
| Std Dev | 6.99% | 5.57% | 11.30% | 4.64% | $95.72B | 0.0% | ||
| Min | -22.51% | -10.54% | -40.36% | -9.94% | $2.67B | 5.5556 | ||
| Max | 7.97% | 12.39% | 6.97% | 6.84% | $303.93B | 5.5556 | ||
| % Positive Tickers | 44.44% | 47.06% | 33.33% | 29.41% |
* Provisional value: before LstRpt% reaches its 2-day post-report lock window (BMO/AMC adjusted), EarningsPerf is calculated from current vs pre-report and then locks to final LstRpt%.