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Oversupply Risk '26: Copper
4 tickers · $443.51B total market cap
Group: Oversupply Risk
The investment thesis for copper is strongly bullish, driven by a structural supply deficit in 2026 and beyond. This deficit is fueled by surging demand from electrification, renewable energy, and particularly AI-driven data center buildouts, coupled with persistent supply constraints due to past oversupply trauma, underinvestment in new megaprojects, declining ore grades, and long lead times for new supply.
Oversupply Risk '26: Copper tracks 4 publicly listed stocks in this theme: ANTO.LSE, BHP.AU, FCX, SCCO. See the constituent table for details.
Thesis update: 2026-03-23
Constituents
Build 20260519T212339
| Company | Previous Quarter Report Date | Next Expected Report Date | Last Quarter Earnings Move % | Earnings Move % | Intra-Quarter Move % | Since Last Report % | Market cap | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BHP Group LimitedBHP.AU | 02/16/2026 (BMO) | — | 3.38% | — | 12.60% | — | $214.06B | 25.0000 |
Southern Copper CorporationSCCO | 04/24/2026 (AMC) | 04/24/2026 (AMC) | 6.72% | -1.00% | -12.11% | -4.94% | $142.00B | 25.0000 |
Freeport-McMoRan Inc.FCX | 04/23/2026 (BMO) | 04/23/2026 (BMO) | -0.28% | -13.23% | 16.47% | -3.85% | $86.95B | 25.0000 |
Antofagasta plcANTO.LSE | 02/17/2026 (AMC) | — | 6.32% | — | -9.20% | — | $501.3M | 25.0000 |
| Average | 4.03% | -7.12% | 1.94% | -4.40% | $110.88B | 25.0000 | ||
| Median | 4.85% | -7.12% | 1.70% | -4.40% | $114.48B | 25.0000 | ||
| Std Dev | 2.80% | 6.12% | 12.71% | 0.55% | $78.06B | 0.0% | ||
| Min | -0.28% | -13.23% | -12.11% | -4.94% | $501.3M | 25.0000 | ||
| Max | 6.72% | -1.00% | 16.47% | -3.85% | $214.06B | 25.0000 | ||
| % Positive Tickers | 75.00% | 0.00% | 50.00% | 0.00% |
* Provisional value: before LstRpt% reaches its 2-day post-report lock window (BMO/AMC adjusted), EarningsPerf is calculated from current vs pre-report and then locks to final LstRpt%.