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Oversupply Risk '26: Lithium
6 tickers · $290.62B total market cap
Group: Oversupply Risk
The lithium market, having endured a severe boom/bust cycle and producer retrenchment, is poised for a rebalancing in 2026. Robust long-term demand from energy storage and continued electrification, coupled with disciplined capital allocation, could lead to future market tightness despite recent price volatility and slowing EV growth in some regions.
Oversupply Risk '26: Lithium tracks 6 publicly listed stocks in this theme: 1772.HK, 9696.HK, ALB, ELV.AU, RIO.AU, SQM. See the constituent table for details.
Thesis update: 2026-03-23
Constituents
Build 20260519T212339
| Company | Previous Quarter Report Date | Next Expected Report Date | Last Quarter Earnings Move % | Earnings Move % | Intra-Quarter Move % | Since Last Report % | Market cap | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Rio Tinto GroupRIO.AU | 02/19/2026 (AMC) | — | -2.77% | — | 10.72% | — | $208.41B | 16.6667 |
Ganfeng Lithium Co., Limited1772.HK | 04/29/2026 (BMO) | 04/29/2026 (BMO) | -2.16% | 6.20% | 7.90% | -16.39% | $25.03B | 16.6667 |
Sociedad QuÃmica y Minera de Chile S.A.SQM | 02/27/2026 (AMC) | 05/26/2026 (AMC) | 0.00% | — | 5.41% | — | $23.61B | 16.6667 |
Albemarle CorporationALB | 05/06/2026 (AMC) | 05/06/2026 (AMC) | -5.18% | 1.81% | 15.79% | -14.77% | $20.71B | 16.6667 |
Tianqi Lithium Corporation9696.HK | 04/27/2026 (BMO) | 04/27/2026 (BMO) | 6.05% | -3.72% | 26.52% | -9.98% | $11.46B | 16.6667 |
Elevra Lithium LimitedELV.AU | 02/24/2026 (BMO) | — | 5.56% | — | 41.40% | — | $1.40B | 16.6667 |
| Average | 0.25% | 1.43% | 17.96% | -13.71% | $48.44B | 16.6667 | ||
| Median | -1.08% | 1.81% | 13.25% | -14.77% | $22.16B | 16.6667 | ||
| Std Dev | 4.21% | 4.06% | 12.51% | 2.72% | $72.00B | 0.0% | ||
| Min | -5.18% | -3.72% | 5.41% | -16.39% | $1.40B | 16.6667 | ||
| Max | 6.05% | 6.20% | 41.40% | -9.98% | $208.41B | 16.6667 | ||
| % Positive Tickers | 33.33% | 66.67% | 100.00% | 0.00% |
* Provisional value: before LstRpt% reaches its 2-day post-report lock window (BMO/AMC adjusted), EarningsPerf is calculated from current vs pre-report and then locks to final LstRpt%.