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TrumpPolicy PreElection Short '24: US Defense
5 tickers · $229.51B total market cap
Group: TrumpPolicy PreElection Short
Despite traditional GOP alignment with defense spending, Trump's isolationist stance and transactional approach to alliances could weigh on U.S. defense primes. NOC, LMT, OSK, and drone-maker AVAV may see contract uncertainty, reduced NATO engagement, and a pivot toward domestic enforcement over global force projection. The Trump campaign has criticized U.S. obligations to NATO and legacy procurement models, suggesting possible budget reallocations. This short thesis captures divergence from historical GOP-defense correlations in favor of EU defense and domestic law enforcement priorities.
TrumpPolicy PreElection Short '24: US Defense tracks 5 publicly listed stocks in this theme: AVAV, ITA, LMT, NOC, OSK. See the constituent table for details.
Thesis update: 2025-04-18
Constituents
Build 20260520T081747
| Company | Previous Quarter Report Date | Next Expected Report Date | Last Quarter Earnings Move % | Earnings Move % | Intra-Quarter Move % | Since Last Report % | Market cap | Weight |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lockheed Martin CorporationLMT | 04/23/2026 (BMO) | 04/23/2026 (BMO) | 6.19% | -7.56% | -12.42% | 2.57% | $121.42B | 20.0000 |
Northrop Grumman CorporationNOC | 04/21/2026 (BMO) | 04/21/2026 (BMO) | 4.26% | -10.25% | -4.67% | -5.64% | $79.02B | 20.0000 |
iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETFITA | — | — | — | — | — | — | $13.64B | 20.0000 |
AeroVironment, Inc.AVAV | 03/10/2026 (AMC) | 06/30/2026 (AMC) | -4.37% | — | -22.87% | — | $8.00B | 20.0000 |
Oshkosh CorporationOSK | 05/08/2026 (BMO) | 05/08/2026 (BMO) | -1.60% | -9.86% | 6.42% | -13.67% | $7.43B | 20.0000 |
| Average | 1.12% | -9.22% | -8.38% | -5.58% | $45.90B | 20.0000 | ||
| Median | 1.33% | -9.86% | -8.54% | -5.64% | $13.64B | 20.0000 | ||
| Std Dev | 4.28% | 1.19% | 10.71% | 6.63% | $46.38B | 0.0% | ||
| Min | -4.37% | -10.25% | -22.87% | -13.67% | $7.43B | 20.0000 | ||
| Max | 6.19% | -7.56% | 6.42% | 2.57% | $121.42B | 20.0000 | ||
| % Positive Tickers | 50.00% | 0.00% | 25.00% | 33.33% |
* Provisional value: before LstRpt% reaches its 2-day post-report lock window (BMO/AMC adjusted), EarningsPerf is calculated from current vs pre-report and then locks to final LstRpt%.